One of the world’s foremost authorities on crimes against humanity believes former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte is likely to face formal charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in its upcoming September hearing.
“I’m fairly confident, given even just the public evidence, that the prosecutor will succeed in confirming the charges,” said Professor Leila Sadat in an interview with Rappler Talk. Sadat, a leading international legal scholar, served as special adviser on crimes against humanity to the ICC prosecutor from 2012 to 2023. She now heads the American branch of the International Law Association and Washington University’s Crimes Against Humanity Initiative.
The ICC pre-trial chamber is set to convene on September 23 to determine whether there are “substantial grounds to believe” that Duterte should be held accountable for crimes against humanity — specifically, his alleged role as an indirect co-perpetrator of thousands of extrajudicial killings. These killings span his controversial war on drugs from 2016 to 2019, and earlier alleged operations by the Davao Death Squad (DDS) from 2011 to 2016, when he was mayor of Davao City.
Sadat explained that “indirect co-perpetration” refers to a legal doctrine often used for high-level officials who orchestrate crimes through subordinates. “They’re not the ones pulling the trigger,” she said. “But they set things in motion — they give the orders, they shape the policy, and they benefit from the results.”
Notably, this legal strategy mirrors that used against other high-profile figures. The late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi faced similar charges before his case was terminated after his death in 2011. Ironically, Duterte’s lead counsel, Nicholas Kaufman, once represented Gaddafi’s daughter in a failed attempt to prompt an ICC investigation into her father’s killing.
Proving a Policy of Violence
A critical hurdle in crimes against humanity cases is proving the existence of a “policy” — in this case, whether Duterte orchestrated or endorsed an attack against civilians. But Sadat believes the prosecution will have little difficulty.
“The policy doesn’t have to be written down or formally declared,” she noted. “It can be shown through a consistent pattern — the same methods, the same targets, the same brutal results.”
With Philippine drug war death estimates ranging between 8,000 to 30,000, Sadat said it’s unlikely the court will view these killings as random or uncoordinated. “This kind of systematic violence — over years — points clearly to a policy in action.”
In addition to the policy requirement, the court will evaluate Duterte’s awareness of the campaign and its effects, and whether there’s a direct link between him and the 43 specific killings cited in the charges.
A Landmark Legal Moment Approaches
If the ICC pre-trial chamber confirms the charges, it will mark a historic moment — not only for the Philippines but for international justice efforts aimed at holding powerful leaders accountable for state-sanctioned violence.
For now, all eyes turn to September, as Prosecutor Karim Khan prepares to make his case against one of Southeast Asia’s most controversial modern leaders.
